Since entering the "Silver Fourth" traditional square tube sales peak season, square tube prices have been staggering upwards. At present, square tube prices have risen for six consecutive working days. It would have been a good thing to control the price increase, but in the face of the rising market, many steel traders are deeply worried about the production situation of square control in the later period. Wang Guoqing, director of Langer Iron and Steel Network Research Center, believes that the latter will maintain a strong trend of shocks. Because at present, although there are good factors such as investment in infrastructure, stricter environmental protection and faster inventory decline to stimulate the rise of square tube prices, with the increase of square tube production in the later period, pressure will be exerted on the price of the other side. 北京吉兆年商贸有限公司总经理乔忠民表示，从近两周来看，是有一个需求放量的情况，但是这只是短期的，从今年整个需求来看，不会比2018年高， 最多与去年的需求持平。乔忠民说，目前方管价格的连续上涨，其实就是对未来需求的一个提前透支，大家在这个时候更应该冷静。因为需求放量的同时，供给端一定会 加快速度生产，钢产量可能会再创新高。因此，后期方管供大于求是大概率事件，未来的市场风险会很大。
Qiao Zhongmin, general manager of Beijing JiZhaonian Commerce and Trade Co., Ltd., said that in the past two weeks, there is a situation of large demand, but this is only a short-term situation. From the whole demand of this year, it will not be higher than that of 2018, and at most it will be equal to last year's demand. Qiao Zhongmin said that at present, the continuous rise of Fangguan's price is actually an overdraft of future demand in advance, and everyone should be calm at this time. As demand increases, the supply side will surely speed up production, and steel production may reach new heights. Therefore, in the later stage, the oversupply of supply over demand is a big probability event, and the market risk in the future will be great.
北京万豪钢铁有限责任公司李栋经理认为，后期方管价格可能会出现回调。李栋表示，从3月份开始需求量就在不断攀升，因为每年的这个时间都是北方工地陆 续开工的节点，钢筋用量大幅增加，目前销量基本与去年同期相差无几。虽然目前社会库存和钢厂库存出现了大幅下降，但这只是短暂的；后期随着钢厂产量增加， 工地采购减少，方管价格上涨的空间不会太大。
Li Dong, manager of Beijing Marriott Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., thinks that the price of Square Management may come back later. Li Dong said that the demand has been rising since March, because this time of year is the node of construction sites in the north, steel consumption has increased substantially, and the current sales are almost the same as the same period last year. Although the current social inventory and steel plant inventory has declined significantly, but this is only temporary; with the increase of steel plant output, site procurement decreased, square tube prices will not rise too much space.
北京中港贸易有限公司董事长张亚辉说，目前螺纹需求依然较为旺盛，公司出货很好，库存消化顺畅。3月份制造业PMI超预期反弹，一季度地方专项债 发行额度超过1.4万亿元，使得市场悲观预期明显缓解。工信部将组织开展巩固化解过剩产能成果抽查，唐山市二三季度限产补充政策出台，市场对于供应端收缩 的预期增强。不过当前螺纹产量水平大幅高于去年同期，随着电炉钢利润的恢复，后期产量仍有释放空间，对价格反弹将形成一定抑制，预计螺纹钢后期走势将以偏 强震荡为主。
Zhang Yahui, chairman of Beijing Zhonggang Trading Co., Ltd., said that the demand for threads is still relatively strong at present. The company's shipment is very good and the stock digestion is smooth. Manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond expectations in March, with the issuance of local special bonds exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which significantly alleviated market pessimism. The Ministry of Industry and Inion Technology will organize spot checks to consolidate the results of eliminating excess capacity. The supplementary policy of production restriction in the second and third quarters of Tangshan City was introduced, and the market's expectation of supply-side contraction increased. However, the current level of threaded production is much higher than the same period last year. With the recovery of EAF steel profits, there is still room for the release of late production, which will restrain the price rebound to a certain extent. It is expected that the trend of late threaded steel will be dominated by strong shocks.
At present, the spot price of threaded steel has risen considerably from March. As of April 9, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Platform, the average price of three-grade threaded steel (25mm) in ten major cities in China was 4152 yuan/ton, 39 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, 150 yuan/ton higher than last week and 184 yuan/ton higher than last month.
Judging from the latest inventory situation, there has been a considerable decline in the square-managed social inventory in recent years. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social stock of square management in 29 key cities in China was 13.17 million tons, down 924,000 tons from last week, 16.43 million tons from the highest stock on March 1, and 3.26 million tons after five weeks.
The production situation that we are worried about has indeed changed. The start-up rate of steel mills has increased considerably, and the output of steel mills may increase in the later period. As of April 4, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, the average blast furnace start-up rate of 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in China was 80.6%, up 7.9 percentage points from last week, ending the downward trend in March.
短期方管管价或继续趋强为主市场观望心态较浓 | 国内焊管价格继续跟涨市场走货将受一定影响