+根据分析师马力表示，春节后开市，不出意外的话，这种纠结观望的心态会持续，价格也会相对稳定。但如果节后钢厂和社会整体钢材库 存量偏低或者经济政策有重大利好，扭转市场观望心态，投机需求突然增加的话，总体价格有可能会在2月份率先上涨，这种走势如果出现的话，对于3月走势是不 利的。但一旦节后库存增长量、库存水平大幅超过市场预期的话，那2月的价格就危险了。从目前的产销形式，市场心态来看，春节后，尤其是2月份价格，以稳为 主的可能性大。
+ According to analyst Ma Li, if the market opens after the Spring Festival, without any surprise, this entanglement and wait-and-see mentality will continue and prices will be relatively stable. However, if the stocks of steel mills and the society as a whole are low after the festival or the economic policy has a significant positive effect, reversing the market wait-and-see mentality and suddenly increasing speculative demand, the overall price may rise first in February. If this trend occurs, it will be disadvantageous to the March trend. But once the stock growth and stock level surpass the market expectation after the festival, the price in February will be dangerous. From the current form of production and marketing, market mentality, after the Spring Festival, especially in February, the price is likely to be stable. 据不完全统计，2018年11月份我国方管产量7762万吨，同比增长10.8%，11月份全国粗钢日均产量258.73万吨，环比下降2.84%；1-11月份我国粗钢产量85737万吨，同比增长6.7%。随着粗钢产量的增加，势必对后期的供需关系形成压力。
According to incomplete statistics, China's crude steel output in November 2018 was 77.62 million tons, an increase of 10.8% compared with the same period last year. In November, China's crude steel output averaged 2.5873 million tons per day, a decrease of 2.84%. In January-November, China's crude steel output was 85.73 million tons, an increase of 6.7%. With the increase of crude steel production, it is bound to form pressure on the supply-demand relationship in the later period.
库存方面，截至2019年1月下旬。监测数据显示，全国29个重点城市钢材社会库存为792万吨，比前一周增加36.57万吨， 上升4.84%，上升速度放缓1.08个百分点。虽然库存出现了连续上涨，但较去年同期还是下降了1.3万吨，与2018年3月份库存最高峰相比，下降了 973.3万吨，下降幅度超过了55%。就目前而言，库存并没有出现大量累积的情况。
Inventory, as of late January 2019. Monitoring data show that the social stock of steel in 29 key cities in China is 792,000 tons, an increase of 365,700 tons over the previous week, an increase of 4.84%, and a slowdown of 1.08 percentage points. Despite the continuous increase in inventories, it has dropped 13,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Compared with the peak in March 2018, it has dropped 9.733 million tons, a decline of more than 55%. At present, there is no large accumulation of inventory.
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